Bashar al-Assad must choose between aligning with Iran or cooperating with Turkey to preserve Syria’s unity, as the country is divided and Turkish forces play a key role in maintaining its territorial integrity.
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Summary
Bashar al-Assad must choose between continuing his alliance with Iran or cooperating with Turkey to preserve Syria’s unity. Syria is effectively divided into three parts, with the PKK controlling one-third, the Free Syrian Army another, and Assad holding the remaining territory with support from Iran and Hezbollah. The PKK, long supported by Assad’s regime, has established political and military organizations in Syria with U.S. backing.
Turkey has offered Assad a path toward peace, including efforts to counter the PKK and support political reconciliation. However, Assad has stalled, issuing ineffective amnesty decrees while demanding Turkish troop withdrawal. These troops, however, are key to maintaining Syria’s territorial integrity. To prevent further fragmentation, Assad must cooperate with Turkey rather than rely on Iran.
Bashar al-Assad faces a pivotal decision if he wants to keep Syria intact: he must distance himself from Iran and turn to Turkey for help. The world, including the Middle East, the EU, and the U.S., recognizes that Syria is effectively divided into three parts, and it’s only a matter of time before this division becomes official. However, Assad and his allies in Tehran have not yet accepted this reality.
A Long History with the PKK
The PKK, a separatist Kurdish group, has a long history with the Assad family. In 1979, Abdullah Öcalan, the PKK’s leader, sought refuge in Syria, where he stayed until 1998. Both Assad’s father, Hafez, and later Bashar, supported not just the PKK but several other terrorist organizations. Syria, through its influence in Lebanon’s Bekaa Valley, trained and supported groups like the DHKP-C, TIKKO, and even the Armenian group Asala. The PKK had bases directly in Syria and was backed by the regime, despite being designated a terrorist organization by the EU and U.S.
The PKK’s Evolution in Syria
Despite Syria’s support, the PKK took advantage of the situation after the Iraq war. They formed political and military organizations in Syria under the names PYD and YPG. With U.S. backing, these groups evolved into what is now known as the Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF), controlling about one-third of Syria. Meanwhile, another third is held by the Free Syrian Army (FSA), a group opposed to Assad, while the rest, including Damascus, remains under Assad’s control, heavily influenced by Iran and Hezbollah.
The Fallout from Civil War
The Syrian civil war, which began after Assad violently cracked down on democratic protests, has led to the displacement of 8 million Syrians, many of whom sought refuge in Turkey. The future of Syria’s unity hinges on the return of these refugees and the recognition of the FSA as a legitimate player in the country’s future. Turkey has taken military action against the PKK in Syria but has also offered Assad a path toward political reconciliation.
Assad’s Missed Opportunities for Peace
Despite Turkey’s efforts, Assad has consistently stalled, issuing decrees that offer amnesty but fail to provide real solutions. These measures have done little to address the core issues or bring political freedom to Syria. Assad’s reluctance to embrace Turkey’s help, while demanding the withdrawal of Turkish troops, is a major obstacle to peace.
A Path Forward: Cooperation with Turkey
Assad’s demands for a Turkish troop withdrawal are misguided. These forces are not just protecting Turkey from PKK terrorism, but they are also crucial in maintaining Syria’s territorial integrity. Without Turkey’s involvement, U.S.-backed forces may push for an independent Kurdish state, which could further fragment Syria. If Assad wants to preserve his country, he needs to accept Turkey’s offer for peace and cooperation, rather than continuing to rely on Tehran’s failing strategy.
