by Prof. Dr. Ramazan ERDAĞ
Although Harris’ nomination as Biden’s replacement offers an opportunity to turn the election atmosphere in favor of the Democratic Party to some extent, it is difficult to say that she is a strong presidential candidate and has a chance against Trump.
The 60th US presidential election to be held on November 5, 2024 promises to be one of the most extraordinary elections in the country’s history. Donald Trump, President of the United States between 2017-2021, announced his candidacy again against Joe Biden, whom he lost in the 2020 elections. Trump, who lost the election against Democratic Party candidate Joe Biden in the 59th presidential elections held on November 3, 2020, made intense objections against the election results, and on January 6, 2021, when the election results were approved in Congress, his supporters gathered in the capital Washington to protest the election results. As a result of the events that went down in history as the US Capitol Raid, many people were arrested and nearly a hundred people were found guilty in the trials.
Donald Trump, against whom impeachment proceedings were initiated after the Congressional raid, was acquitted in a vote in the Senate. In fact, the impeachment process initiated after the Congressional raid in 2021 was a second impeachment process for Trump, and Donald Trump became the first US President to be impeached twice. In 2019, impeachment proceedings were initiated against Trump for allegedly pressuring Ukraine to open an investigation into corruption allegations against his rival Joe Biden, and he was cleared in the Senate. In addition, the jury found Trump guilty in the case known as “hush money” against Donald Trump due to allegations that he paid a movie star not to speak against him before the 2016 presidential elections, but the court has not yet delivered its verdict. The verdict, expected in July, has been postponed until September. Whatever the court’s verdict, Trump is not barred from running in the elections or serving as president if elected.
Alleged election interference
Donald Trump has called the impeachment proceedings and the “hush money” case against him a witch hunt and interference in the 2024 presidential elections. On July 13, 2024, Donald Trump, the Republican presidential candidate, was attacked with a gun during a campaign rally in Butler, Pennsylvania. Trump, who survived the assassination attempt with an ear wound, increased his support against the current president and Democratic candidate Joe Biden. Before the assassination attempt against Trump, Biden’s performance in the Trump-Biden debate on CNN television on June 27 was criticized and it was evaluated that Trump had a better chance against Biden in the presidential race. With his poor performance in the debate and Trump’s lead in opinion polls after the assassination attempt, calls and pressures for Biden to withdraw from the nomination began to increase.
In the following process, Joe Biden announced that he would not withdraw from the nomination despite his admitted inability to debate against Donald Trump. Biden said that his health is not what it used to be, despite calls from some circles in the Democratic Party and those who support him to withdraw due to his age and poor performance in the debate, but that he is still the strongest candidate against Trump and that he is not going anywhere. At a time when Trump’s popularity was growing and pressure on Biden to step down was increasing, it was announced that President Biden tested positive for Covid-19 on July 17 and would continue to serve as president by isolating himself. Immediately after this, Biden announced his withdrawal from the presidential candidacy in a letter published on his social media account on July 21 with the statement “I had intended to run for re-election, but I decided it would be best for my party and my country to withdraw. For the rest of the time, I will focus solely on my presidential duties.” Biden also announced that he will support his running mate Kamala Harris against Trump in the presidential election.
Why did Biden decide to withdraw?
“I believe in what I have done as president, in my leadership in the world, in my vision for America’s future, and I believe it will be enough for a second term. But nothing can get in the way of saving our democracy, not even our personal desires. That’s why I’ve decided that the best way forward is to pass the baton to a new generation. It’s the best way to unite our nation.” He emphasized the need to support Harris to win the election against Trump. It is obvious that there are reasons that dissuaded Biden, who said that he never had any intention of withdrawing from the nomination, even as the pressure on him to withdraw from the nomination increased and he accepted some of the criticism of his performance.
First, even though Biden has said that he is in good health and ready for a second term, his image on the screen, often staggering, falling while walking, talking into the void, confusing names, people and events, has been very negative for his second term. The debate with Trump confirmed this. Second, at the beginning of the process, the support he received from his closest circle and the party wing for the nomination gradually diminished. Thirdly, the gradual decline in support for Biden, even in states where the Democratic Party had always led the elections in opinion polls, and the fact that he clearly had no chance of being elected against Trump were effective in the decision. If he insisted on his candidacy and lost to Trump in the elections, the representatives of the established order and the segment of society that did not want a second Trump era (Trump 2.0) in the US would cut the bill to Biden. In this case, Biden would be remembered both within the Democrats and in the public opinion as the author of the Trump 2.0 era. Biden did not want to take such a risk.
A low-profile actor: Kamala Harris
Following Biden’s decision to withdraw from the nomination, Kamala Harris, his running mate, was surprisingly given financial support. In an atmosphere where reactions against Biden increased and public opinion polls pointed to Trump’s victory, Harris, who displayed the impression of a low-profile actor during her Vice Presidency, came to the fore as the closest name to the Democratic nomination after Biden’s surprise decision to withdraw, creating a new atmosphere in the US presidential election process. Although Donald Trump’s name has been finalized as the Republican presidential candidate, the Democratic presidential candidate will be finalized at the party’s national convention in Chicago on August 19-22. Although the names of several governors are being discussed as candidates against Harris, Kamala Harris seems to have the necessary support within the Democratic Party for the nomination.
Donald Trump’s reaction to Biden’s withdrawal was “someone who should not be a candidate or even president in the 2020 elections”. After Biden’s withdrawal from the presidential candidacy, Trump said in a statement on his social media account Social Truth that Biden’s health condition was known to be unfavorable and that he would repair the damage caused to the country during Biden’s presidency. Trump also claimed that Kamala Harris was an easier candidate for him to beat than Biden.
The US is going through a turbulent presidential election process, and therefore, the elections to be held on November 5, 2024 will perhaps be the most extraordinary in the country’s history. While Donald Trump, whose unprecedented rhetoric and actions were witnessed in US politics during his first presidential term, said that Biden won the 2020 elections by rigging the elections and that he would get a rematch in the 2024 elections, Trump’s popularity, which increased even more after the discussions about Biden’s health status and the assassination attempt, brought new moves very shortly before the elections. Unwilling to bear the cost of a possible electoral loss and forced to embrace the idea of a new candidate, Biden announced his official withdrawal from the nomination and proposed his aide Kamala Harris instead. As a result, although Harris’s candidacy in Biden’s place offered an opportunity to turn the election atmosphere in favor of Trump to some extent, it seems difficult to say for now that she is a strong presidential candidate and has a chance against Trump. However, no matter how the US presidential elections turn out, the extraordinary events of the pre-election period will be the most memorable developments of this period.
Source: star.com.tr
