The TV host asks Prof. John Mearsheimer:
– “Is a Russian attack on Europe imminent?”
The professor bursts into a laugh you might not expect: “Are Macron and Starmer saying that?” he begins, and then continues:
– “If they were serious people, I would have listed Russia’s strategic goals, the state of its armed forces and so on. But Macron and Starmer are not to be taken seriously!”
Really harsh words for the French President and the British Prime Minister from the mouth of a theoretician, a theoretician of international relations, one of those who made geopolitical analysis a science. Hungarian Prime Minister Viktor Orban vetoed a proposal by European Union countries to send troops “to defend Ukraine against a Russian invasion after the ceasefire”. Orban was not alone in this objection. Italy, Spain and even Germany have been very reluctant to join the project to replace NATO after the United States has left. A race was then launched between Britain and France to create a “European army”. It was called a “coalition of willing countries” and even Turkey was invited to join this coalition, with the promise of a positive answer, something it had not been given for 60 years for EU membership. The EU invitation is all well and good; even the idea of a “European army without America” is very nice… But there is neither Russia, whose attack is imminent, nor the US, which is willing to completely give up its role as NATO boss!
First of all, it does not take a military expert to realize that the ceasefire agreement between Ukraine and Russia that Trump is trying to broker will not be possible without a negotiated and signed peace treaty. Why would Russia say yes to a ceasefire when it is currently winning a war of massacre and occupation against Ukrainian civilians? Russia has already annexed Crimea and held so-called referendums in the six occupied provinces, the majority of which are ethnic Russian, to declare independence. Russia has also shown that it can increase the number of these 6 provinces to 9 if it wants to.
For this war to end, Ukraine must:
(a) give up its intention to join NATO,
(b) cancel NATO’s 2008 expansion plan including Ukraine and Georgia,
(c) take back the heavy weapons and equipment given to Ukraine. Ukraine would not have lost 2,500 children, 42,000 civilians, 56,000 soldiers and 42,000 civilians in 2008 if NATO had not, so to speak, thrown the 2008 bite that it could not swallow. (By the way, 35,000 Ukrainian soldiers are “missing”, but they are believed to have deserted).
Let’s say the Ukrainians took the steps that led to the Russian aggression with the enthusiasm of the color revolutions and the excitement of Soros-funded publications; but why did they back out of the peace agreement in Istanbul the moment they realized that this war was unwinnable?
They turned back because they believed the then British Prime Minister Boris Johnson, who, after meeting with Biden in the US, ran straight to Kiev and said, “Don’t sign this agreement, the US and the EU are behind you!” (BoJo was the grandson of Ali Kemal, who was Minister of Education and Interior in the government of Damat Ferit Pasha and was lynched during the liberation of Istanbul).
Now the UK is claiming that an invasion of the whole of Europe is “only a matter of time” because “Russia is intoxicated by its victory in Ukraine and Trump has abandoned the defense of Europe”. France does not expect such a sudden attack, but believes that Europe must be prepared to defend itself against Russia.
Let’s not get into conspiracy theories here, but let’s remember that Britain and France are the biggest arms manufacturers and exporters in Europe, and that if a “coalition of the willing” is formed and a European army emerges, our British and French friends are ready to supply its equipment and weapons.
Prof. John Mearsheimer’s laughter at the question of a Russian attack at any moment still haunts me.
Source: milliyet.com.tr
