By Benjamin Feve
Has crime in Turkey increased following the arrival of 3.6 million Syrian refugees? While many locals might say “yes,” the reality is quite the opposite.
The arrival of Syrian refugees has actually led to a decrease in criminal activities.
The study published in 2021 titled “The Effect of 3.6 Million Refugees on Crime” found that, contrary to popular belief, the influx of refugees has not led to an increase in crime. In fact, the data indicates a decrease in criminal activities following their arrival.
The decrease in crime rates was observed across various crime categories, including assaults, sexual crimes, kidnapping, and defamation, with the exception of smuggling.
The study found that a ten-point increase in the percentage of refugees in a province’s population resulted in an 8.1 percent drop in crime rates.
Potential reasons for the reduction in crime include:
•Deterrence by the threat of deportation: The fear of detention and deportation has likely deterred many refugees from engaging in criminal activities.
•Employment in the informal sector: Many refugees have found jobs in the informal sector, providing them with a source of income and reducing the need to resort to illegal activities.
•Cash assistance programs: Humanitarian aid programs, such as the Emergency Social Safety Net (ESSN), have provided refugees with financial support, helping to alleviate poverty and reduce the incentive for crime.
•Impact on native labor market: While some low-skilled native workers may have been displaced, many have found better opportunities in the formal sector, which may have mitigated potential increases in crime among the local population and tensions between host communities and refugees.
Importantly, the study found no evidence of an increased presence of armed forces in refugee-hosting regions, suggesting that the reduction in crime is not due to heightened security measures.
