by Mehmet ACET
Recently, there has been a decline in interest and motivation towards what is happening around us, or in our close geography due to with elections and domestic politics.
In the war between Russia and Ukraine (or Russia’s invasion) that has been going on in Ukrainian territory for almost 1.5 years, there have been critical developments in recent days that cannot be neglected.
Let me give a brief summary:
The Ukrainian army, with new support from the West, has launched a new counter-offensive to expel the Russian army from its territory, which is expected to last several months.
There are, of course, doubts as to whether this operation will be successful.
Let’s quote US Secretary of State Antony Blinken’s statement to CNN to dispel some of these doubts:
“About 50 percent of the territory initially occupied by the Russians has already been retaken. These are just the first days of the counteroffensive (launched by the Ukrainian army). It is a difficult operation. So it will take several months, not a week or two weeks.”
At the same time as Blinken was speaking these words, Russian President Putin, together with his best friend Belarusian President Lukashenko, was making half-joking, half-serious, half-hard/semi-soft, but always threatening statements towards Poland.
LATEST RUSSIAN AGGRESSION HEIGHTENS TENSIONS OVER THE BLACK SEA
On the other side, as of July 17, the grain deal ended and the Russians immediately started launching attacks that raised the alert level.
Where?
In the Black Sea coast of Ukraine and on the Danube river in Romania, which was last recognized as the NATO border.
In other words, this is not happening in eastern Ukraine, but in the areas that have been of most concern to us all along.
After withdrawing from the grain deal, the Russians have launched a succession of attacks on Ukraine’s strategic port city of Odessa.
As if that were not enough, in recent days there have been attacks on the port of Reni, which is Ukrainian territory, but only 300 meters from the Romanian border, on the Danube River.
It should be noted that these attacks started after Ukrainian President Zelensky pointed to the Danube as an alternative route for grain shipments.
ATTENTION! THE WEST MAY BE TRYING TO PUSH THE WAR TO THE BLACK SEA AND THE RUSSIAN THREAT FROM THE WEST TO THE SOUTH
With the outbreak of the Ukrainian war, Turkey closed the straits to warships, taking into account the relevant provisions of the Montreux Convention.
This was a critical decision in terms of preventing this war from spreading to the Black Sea.
However, at this very point, we should also remind the following:
It is not only Russia that wants to use the Straits for the Black Sea, but also Western countries (allies), especially the US and the UK through NATO.
It is no secret that Turkey, as a NATO member, has been subjected to various suggestions and pressures in this regard at various times.
For this reason, it is obvious that we are going through a period in which we need to be extremely careful against possible fait accompli and fait accompli.
Because if the Russian-Ukrainian war spreads to the Black Sea, it means that Turkey will feel this war directly ‘on its neck’.
It means that the Russians will shift their threat perception from the west to the south.
For the moment, the Russian threat perception is not to the Black Sea and the south, but to the northwest of the Black Sea, that is, to the west of its territory.
Two weeks ago, I wrote in this column that Lithuania, where we went for the NATO summit, was experiencing massive migration out of fear that we would be next after Ukraine.
In other words, one of the pillars of the recent escalation of tensions over the Black Sea may be a calculation/plan/strategy to shift the threat perception of the Russians to the south.
In the first months of the war in Ukraine, Ankara, through high-level official mouthpieces, made statements/accusations that some NATO member states were acting to escalate the war.
In fact, there is a well-established opinion around the world that the US and the UK are using every means at their disposal to escalate this war.
This being the case, let us reiterate the need to be extremely cautious against western powers that may intend to bring this war to our shores.
Translated from Haber7.com
