The October 2024 IKRG elections saw high turnout and a KDP-led outcome, which Turkey views favorably as it seeks to support stability in the region and counterbalance PUK’s PKK ties.
The October 20, 2024, elections in the Iraqi Kurdistan Regional Government (IKRG) marked a high turnout under a new electoral system, with the KDP leading at 39 seats, followed by PUK with 23, and notable gains by the New Generation Movement with 15 seats. Coalition talks are now focused on a broad-based government involving the KDP, PUK, and potentially New Generation. Turkey welcomed the results, favoring KDP’s lead as a counterbalance to PUK’s ties with the PKK, and is set to support a stable government in IKRG while safeguarding its regional security interests, particularly against any PKK entrenchment.
The Iraqi Kurdistan Regional Government (IKRG) held its parliamentary elections on October 20, 2024, after a two-year delay.
Initially set for 2022, the elections had been postponed four times due to disputes between the Kurdistan Democratic Party (KDP) and the Patriotic Union of Kurdistan (PUK), with the Iraqi Federal Court making some changes to the electoral system. These changes transformed IKRG from a single electoral district into four districts: Erbil, Sulaymaniyah, Duhok, and Halabja.
In addition, the parliamentary seats were reduced from 111 to 100, with quotas for Christians, Turkmens, and Armenians also dropping from 10 to five.
The election, the first under the new system and quotas, garnered a strong response, raising voter turnout from 59% in 2018 to 72%.
The peaceful election saw voters use biometric IDs for the first time, reducing instances of fraud, such as duplicate voting or proxy voting, and lowering the number of invalid votes.
According to the results announced shortly after the election, the KDP won 39 seats, PUK 23, the New Generation Movement 15, the Kurdistan Islamic Union Party (Yekgirtu) seven, the Halwest Movement four, the Kurdistan Justice Society Party (Komel) three, the People’s Front two, the Kurdistan Alliance Group one, and the Gorran Movement one. Two of the five remaining seats went to Turkmen candidates, and three to Christian candidates.
No party won a majority to form a government alone (50+1), with the KDP holding the first position and PUK the second, much like the distribution in 2018. However, a notable surprise was the Gorran Movement’s drastic decline from 12 seats to just one, nearly erasing it from the political landscape.
Conversely, the New Generation Movement doubled its seats, moving from eight to 15, making it the third-largest party in the parliament.
Another surprising result was for the Iraqi Turkmen Front (ITC), which only garnered 2,000 votes and won no seats, despite claims of a 100,000 to 400,000 Turkmen population in the region. Consequently, no Turkmen party will be represented in the IKRG parliament for the upcoming term.
The two Turkmen MPs elected via minority quotas are said to have received support from the KDP in Erbil and the PUK in Sulaymaniyah. Thus, it is uncertain whether they will genuinely represent Turkmen issues or follow the policies of the parties that helped secure their seats.
Whether Turkmen representation in the government will continue depends on the balances and calculations in the coalition negotiations led by the KDP and PUK.
Despite increasing its seats from 21 to 23, the PUK did not achieve the anticipated success, with some predictions even suggesting it could lead the IKRG. The rationale behind this expectation included the economic challenges stemming from KDP’s issues with the Baghdad government and its strained relations with Iran. PUK’s support from both Iran and Baghdad, and even indirect support from the U.S., were thought to have voter appeal.
However, this prediction proved inaccurate, with PUK receiving only 408,000 votes compared to the KDP’s approximately 809,000 votes.
Following these unexpected results, PUK leader Bafel Talabani abandoned pre-election discourse about a KDP-free government and instead called for a broad-based government.
Despite not having enough seats to form a government alone, the KDP declared the election results a victory and announced plans to collaborate with all stakeholders in forming a government. Although a coalition with the New Generation Movement would be numerically sufficient for the KDP, it is unlikely to exclude the PUK given the regional power dynamics, which could create a tense political atmosphere.
Therefore, a broad-based coalition government is expected, involving the KDP, PUK, and potentially the New Generation Movement or other smaller parties, to address pressing issues requiring a stable and inclusive government.
How Will These Election Results Affect Turkey’s Policy Toward IKRG?
Turkey established close ties with both the KDP and PUK in the 1990s, contributing significantly to the region’s development. However, after the 2017 independence referendum, Turkey’s policy shifted, ceasing investments and imposing some sanctions.
Turkey also enhanced its relations with Baghdad and halted oil payments to IKRG. The Baghdad government deemed direct oil trade between Turkey and IKRG unconstitutional and took Turkey to international arbitration. Turkey is now in ongoing discussions with Baghdad to resolve this issue, with progress expected soon.
Turkey welcomed the election outcome with the KDP as the leading party, as a PUK victory would likely have worsened relations due to PUK’s continued ties with the PKK and indirect support for the PYD/YPG in northern Syria, potentially prompting Turkey to take direct action in the region.
Regardless of the election results, Turkey will remain vigilant in the region. Given that PUK maintains close ties with actors like Iran, the U.S., and even Israel, all of whom have reservations about Turkey’s presence, Turkey will carefully support the anticipated KDP-led government while ensuring that its relations with Baghdad are not adversely influenced by these actors.
In summary, developments in IKRG are directly relevant to Turkey’s national security, and Turkey will not tolerate any situation that could entrench the PKK’s presence in the region. PUK has been warned numerous times to sever its ties with the PKK, and the election results indicate that Turkey’s policies against this support are not widely favored by the public. PUK should reconsider its stance; otherwise, Turkey will not hesitate to use its international rights to protect its security.
While wishing for favorable outcomes from the election for IKRG, Iraq, and the region, I hope the new government will be established and begin its duties promptly.
On this occasion, I also congratulate the 101st anniversary of our Republic, commemorating with respect and gratitude our Republic’s founder, Gazi Mustafa Kemal Atatürk, and his comrades.
