Trump’s return to the presidency has led to a significant shift in US foreign policy, weakening ties with Western allies and fostering a more accommodating stance toward Russia, reshaping global geopolitics.
Under Trump’s leadership, the US has moved away from its traditional alliances, halting support for Ukraine, questioning NATO’s role, and engaging in direct talks with Russia while sidelining the EU. This stark departure from Biden’s strategy, which prioritized strengthening Western unity against Moscow, has left Ukraine increasingly isolated, prompting Zelenskyy to seek Türkiye’s assistance. As the US redefines its global position, uncertainty looms over the stability of international alliances and the broader geopolitical balance.
Trump’s Return and the Shake-up in Global Politics
Donald Trump’s words and actions since his return to the US presidency continue to shake states and international organizations, including the country’s traditional allies. While the Trump administration attempts to confront the so-called “establishment” within the US and dismantle its influence, it is also settling scores with this apparatus’s global collaborators—first exposing, then seeking to destroy this deep network.
The Shadow of Past Impeachment and New Controversies
During his first term, Trump faced impeachment threats over allegations that Russia interfered in the 2016 elections in his favor. Later, he was accused of abusing his power by pressuring Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy to investigate Hunter Biden, the son of Joe Biden. These past controversies have fueled speculation about his stance on Ukraine and Russia. Since returning to office, Trump’s statements and decisions have reignited claims that the US is undergoing an “axis shift.”
Where Does the Axis Shift Claim Come From?
First, let’s recall that when Joe Biden took office in 2021, his policies—similar in some ways to Trump’s during his 2016-2020 term—reassured countries in the global Western axis, particularly the EU and NATO members. He pledged that the US remained committed to its traditional alliances and would fulfill its responsibilities accordingly.
Biden’s Ukraine Strategy and the Strengthening of NATO
Barely a year into his presidency, Biden essentially handed Ukraine over to Russia. By provoking Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, he simultaneously reinforced the Atlantic Alliance, forming a broad front against Moscow. This campaign was so effective that the EU, despite its dependence on cheap Russian energy, was forced to turn to the far more expensive US alternative. Even historically neutral European nations like Finland and Sweden were driven to seek NATO membership due to the manufactured Russian threat.
Reviving Cold War-era fears of the Soviet Union, the US imposed economic sanctions to strangle Russia while securing an arrest warrant for Vladimir Putin through the International Criminal Court. Countries doing business with Russia faced punitive measures, while Moscow’s traditional allies were enticed to distance themselves. The goal: turning Russia into a pariah state.
Russia’s Struggles and the Changing Battlefield in Ukraine
Despite its military strength, Russia became bogged down in Ukraine, suffering heavy losses. Tens of thousands of soldiers perished, forcing Moscow to recruit troops from North Korea and procure kamikaze drones from Iran. In a historic moment, Ukrainian forces even briefly entered Russia’s Kursk region—marking the first foreign occupation of Russian soil since World War II.
While still reeling from the shock in Kursk, Russia faced another blow. Despite Putin’s nuclear threats, Ukraine, using ballistic missiles supplied by Western allies, called his bluff, severely damaging Russia’s international image.
Russia’s setbacks in Ukraine were so severe that, despite its long-standing ambition to gain access to warm waters—realized in 2015 with Bashar al-Assad’s invitation to intervene in Syria—the country was forced to withdraw quietly due to the Syrian revolution.
Trump’s Return and a 180-Degree Shift in US Policy
Against this backdrop of Russian decline, Trump’s reelection and his campaign promise to end the Ukraine war marked a dramatic shift. His administration immediately halted aid to Ukraine while simultaneously announcing plans to negotiate peace with Russia.
Shortly after, at the Munich Security Conference, US Vice President J.D. Vance criticized the EU for lacking freedom of speech and expression. He warned that if Europe failed to take responsibility for its own security, the US would withdraw its troops from the continent.
Adding to the growing unease, US and Russian delegations met in Riyadh to discuss peace in Ukraine—without the presence of EU or Ukrainian officials. The fact that Ukraine, the primary party in the war, was excluded from these discussions was scandalous enough. But the US sidelining its traditional ally, the EU, was even more troubling.
Trump’s Statements Against Ukraine and the Zelenskyy Dilemma
As if that weren’t enough, Trump’s accusations against Zelenskyy—calling him a “dictator” and falsely claiming that he started the war—were seen as both an act of betrayal against Ukraine and a hypocritical denial of the US’s own role in instigating the conflict.
Trump further escalated tensions by demanding reparations from Ukraine, claiming that the US’s supposed $350 billion in aid should be repaid. He proposed seizing Ukraine’s rare earth minerals, mines, and other underground resources to cover the costs. This was the final straw. His administration even considered establishing an Ottoman Empire-style “Public Debt Administration” (Düyûn-ı Umûmiye) to manage Ukraine’s financial obligations—an unprecedented move.
A US Surrender to Russia?
Trump’s anti-Ukraine stance reached its peak when he suggested that Putin was under no obligation to negotiate and could occupy all of Ukraine if he wished. He even declared that he alone could negotiate with Putin, dismissing the need for Zelenskyy’s presence at the table.
In other words, US policy on Ukraine had flipped 180 degrees: once staunchly anti-Russia, Washington had now shifted to outright capitulation. This was an unmistakable sign of an axis shift.
Türkiye as the Last Resort for Ukraine
Left without options, Zelenskyy, recognizing that the US no longer considered the EU relevant, turned to Türkiye for support. His meeting with President Erdoğan—symbolized by the now-famous umbrella photograph—was the most telling image of the period.
Ironically, after rejecting Türkiye’s previous ceasefire and peace initiatives in favor of US and UK backing, Zelenskyy found himself knocking on Ankara’s door. Fortunately, Türkiye, just as in the past, remains the sole mediator capable of brokering peace between Ukraine and Russia.
The EU’s Failed Attempt to Reassert Influence
Meanwhile, the EU, which had once fueled the flames of war alongside the US, attempted to insert itself into negotiations by organizing a separate summit in Paris, led by Emmanuel Macron. However, they were ignored, unable even to agree among themselves on how to respond if the US withdrew its security guarantees against Russia.
A New Global Order?
Ultimately, the US—the very architect of the global Western axis—has, under Trump, distanced itself from this alliance and undergone a strategic shift, falling under Russia’s influence. Where this new axis will take the US remains uncertain, but it is doubtful that the rest of the world will follow.
This shift does not bode well. On the contrary, it signals the collapse of the rules-based international order, the rise of brute power politics, and the dawn of a new world order where might makes right.
It will be interesting to see how those who once accused Türkiye of an “axis shift” for simply prioritizing its own national interests in the Ukraine war will react now that it is the US making the move.
