Growing concerns about Israel’s threat to Turkey have intensified due to actions in the Middle East, especially against Hezbollah in Lebanon, potentially leading to conflict with Iran.
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Summary: The evolving issue of whether Israel poses a threat to Turkey has become more pressing, with concerns about the significance of that threat growing. Israel’s actions challenging Turkey’s interests and security in the Middle East have escalated, especially after extensive military operations in Gaza. Prime Minister Netanyahu’s aggressive stance, backed by the U. S. , has emboldened Israel’s leadership to push boundaries through power projection. Israel’s actions against Hezbollah in Lebanon could destabilize the region, affecting Turkey’s security. The potential for conflict with Iran could have widespread ramifications. Turkey’s response, led by President Erdoğan, reflects a strategic shift in perceiving Israel as a direct threat to national security. Israel’s actions may hinder Turkey’s efforts to promote regional stability. Concerns also arise about the impact on Turkey of potential conflict spillover, terrorist group resurgence, economic repercussions, refugee influx, and social disruption instigated by Israel. It is crucial for Turkey to remain vigilant and address these threats to safeguard its future.
In recent months, the question of whether Israel poses a threat to Turkey has evolved into a more pressing issue: How significant is that threat?
Israel’s geopolitical maneuvers have long posed challenges to Turkey, even before the events of October 7, 2023. These include its involvement in anti-Turkey policies across the Middle East, its participation in energy distribution forums in the Eastern Mediterranean designed to exclude Turkey, and the militarization of the region through security agreements with the Greek Cypriot Administration of Southern Cyprus. These actions have consistently undermined Turkey’s interests and security in the region.
After October 7, when Israel began its extensive military operations in Gaza, the risks to Turkey became even more pronounced. What was once a set of isolated geopolitical concerns has now transformed into a broader and more immediate security challenge. Israel’s aggressive policies have evolved into a full-blown strategy, evident in its reckless actions that go beyond Gaza. Strikes in Lebanon, periodic bombings in Syria, and an attack on the Iranian embassy in Syria suggest that Israel is willing to escalate tensions on multiple fronts. The risk of this conflict spreading to other regional powers, particularly Iran, is significant. If Israel’s actions continue unchecked, the entire Middle East could be engulfed in further instability, bringing Turkey into the fray.
President Erdoğan sees Israel as a direct national security threat, hindering regional stability efforts and posing various risks to Turkey’s future.
Prime Minister Netanyahu’s aggressive stance is reinforced by unwavering support from the U.S. administration, which supplies Israel with both political and military backing. This emboldens Israel’s leadership to push territorial and political boundaries, all while engaging in increasingly provocative acts of power projection. Netanyahu’s rhetoric, often framed in religious and historical contexts like the Arz-e-Mo’ud (the Promised Land), signals Israel’s intention to expand its territorial control and reshape the region to its advantage. Each Israeli assault, whether in Gaza, Lebanon, or Syria, sets the stage for larger and more ambitious offensives, none of which bodes well for Turkey’s security or regional peace.
Israel’s current actions against Hezbollah in Lebanon are telling. Ostensibly aimed at eliminating Hezbollah’s influence, these military strikes could easily expand into a full-scale offensive that destabilizes Lebanon as a whole. Without outside intervention, it is not unreasonable to predict that Lebanon could, in the medium term, be reduced to a war zone similar to Gaza. Such a scenario poses a direct threat to Turkey, given Lebanon’s proximity and the potential for the conflict to spiral into a larger regional war.
Simultaneously, Israel has kept its eyes on Iran, consistently framing it as a regional adversary. Although Iran’s direct response to Israel’s actions remains uncertain, any escalation between these two nations could have catastrophic ripple effects across the Middle East, further complicating Turkey’s position.
Turkey’s reaction to these developments has been swift and vocal. President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan has long been an outspoken critic of Israeli policies, frequently condemning its actions in Gaza and accusing Israel of acting as a terrorist state. However, his most recent statements, including labeling Israel as an imminent threat during a speech in parliament, signal a shift in Turkey’s perception of the risks posed by Israel. Erdoğan’s rhetoric is no longer confined to humanitarian concerns; it now reflects a strategic calculation that Israel’s actions pose a direct threat to Turkey’s national security.
Some analysts have dismissed Erdoğan’s rhetoric as exaggerated or motivated by domestic political concerns. However, to downplay Turkey’s fears would be a mistake. The risks Israel poses are real and multifaceted. Israel’s strategy of turning the region into a zone of perpetual conflict directly undermines Turkey’s broader foreign policy goals, which aim to foster stability and peace across its borders. For example, Turkey has been working to stabilize Iraq by strengthening its central government, engaging in dialogue with the Assad regime in Syria to foster peace, and maintaining open channels with Iran to keep regional disputes at a diplomatic level. Israel’s actions, on the other hand, could thwart these efforts and destabilize Turkey’s neighborhood.
Another area of concern for Turkey is the possibility that Israel may extend its military operations into Syria and Iraq, following its current focus on Lebanon. Israel already conducts sporadic airstrikes in these countries, targeting Iranian-backed groups, but a more sustained military campaign could cause widespread chaos. A prolonged conflict in these areas would bring the war ever closer to Turkey’s borders, heightening the risks of a spillover into Turkish territory.
In addition to these direct military threats, Israel’s actions in the region could lead to the resurgence of terrorist groups like the PKK/PYD. If the conflicts in Syria and Iraq intensify, these groups could consolidate their power and expand their territorial control, posing a serious threat to Turkey’s national security. Turkey, already burdened by the challenges of managing its border regions, would face even greater difficulties if these groups were to gain further influence.
Moreover, Turkey’s economy would likely suffer if regional instability were to worsen. Increased conflict in neighboring countries could disrupt trade routes, hinder economic growth, and create new waves of refugees. This is a critical concern for Turkey, which is already hosting millions of refugees and working to create conditions that would allow them to return to their home countries. A new influx of migrants from Syria, Lebanon, or Iraq would put immense pressure on Turkey’s social services and infrastructure, exacerbating domestic tensions.
Finally, Israel’s ability to influence internal dynamics within Turkey cannot be underestimated. Through various channels, Israel could potentially disrupt Turkey’s social peace, either by supporting hostile actors within the country or by sowing division through media and other means. Such interference would pose an additional challenge to Turkey’s stability.
While some may view this as an overly pessimistic outlook, it’s essential to remember that similar scenarios have unfolded in the recent past. The instability we see today is, in many ways, a continuation of unresolved conflicts from previous years. Turkey is much more resilient now than it was during earlier periods of crisis, but failing to recognize and manage the risks posed by Israel could lead to even greater challenges down the road.
In conclusion, while Turkey is fully capable of addressing these threats, it is imperative to remain vigilant. Israel’s current policies, both military and geopolitical, pose significant risks to Turkey’s security, stability, and long-term interests in the region. Turkey must be prepared to manage these risks effectively to safeguard its future.
