By Wadah Khanfar
A First Assessment of the Consequences of Trump’s Victory
The Republicans will take the presidency, the Senate and the House of Representatives, giving them the upper hand in all three branches of power. A political earthquake is taking place in the US and its repercussions will be felt around the world.
What does Trump and his party’s victory mean for the world and for us?
1- Trump and his party’s victory in the Senate will allow him to shape his administration as he wishes. He will not have the difficulties of the previous president; he will be stronger, he will have more confidence in his programs and policies. He is coming back, with a vengeful attitude, and he interprets the new mandate as a correction of the fraud and personal attacks against him.
2- This victory is a success for the right on a global scale and a big blow for the liberals. Therefore, in the next European elections, we may see an increase in the chances of the right.
3- Europe is in a state of shock and anxiety. NATO will again be in limbo, as it was during Trump’s first presidency, forcing Europe to contribute more financially and take responsibility for its own defenses. European economies are struggling and the continent is politically divided between a rising right and a confused left. European leaders are in the weakest position since World War II.
4- Russia is in a celebratory mood. Trump is the ally Russia wants to win; now he can resolve the Ukraine issue and weaken NATO, pushing it away from its strategic periphery.
5- China does not share the celebrations in the Kremlin, as Trump’s policies towards China will be more aggressive economically and technologically. But Trump’s aversion to direct military confrontation is an advantage for China. It should be recalled that he is trying to reach an agreement on North Korea, but he is unlikely to change the US strategy on China.
6- It is too early to assess his policies towards the region, but Trump tends to make deals and does not follow a clear path; he can take steps in any direction. What is certain is that Harris’ defeat is not sad news for the region; Biden’s administration had contributed negatively to the situation in Gaza and Harris would have continued on this path.
7- It does not mean that Trump will be a dove of peace; he may make bad decisions on Jerusalem and the Golan, like the bad decisions he made in his first term. But his personal style and ambition will make it more likely that he will stop the war and make a deal, and it may not be a good one.
8- Tehran is worried, Ankara is hopeful. Trump has used harsh rhetoric against Iran, threatening to strike its nuclear facilities. This may be an electoral exit, but Iran may try to buy time by promoting its moderate leaders. As for Turkey, its relations with the Democrats are bad, especially on the Kurdish issue in Syria. Erdoğan’s relationship with Trump is friendlier than with Biden.
9- Trump’s victory should be seen as an important turning point in an America deeply divided at home. At the international level, it will raise many doubts, accelerate polarization and give rise to new regional blocs and alliances. The international system is already fragile and today it is even weaker. We are on the threshold of an exciting period that carries great risks but also opens the door to change and the repositioning of powers.
10- While the international system is evolving towards multipolarity, the countries in our region are still far from being an integrated geopolitical center. Lacking regional integration, our countries will act according to Washington, further weakening our strategic depth and popular support.
