By Prof. Dr. Ahmet Uysal
Istanbul, with a population of 16 million, is Turkey’s largest city. Although Ankara is the political capital, Istanbul has significant economic, cultural, and political weight. Ekrem Imamoglu, who ran in the 2019 and 2024 municipal elections as an opposition candidate, succeeded in winning the post on both occasions. In the summer of 2023, he wanted to run in the presidential elections, but the then CHP chairman, Kemal Kilicdaroglu, decided to run himself. After Kilicdaroglu’s election defeat, Imamoglu played a pivotal role in his ouster within the party, supporting the election of Özgur Özel as the new CHP president in November 2023, making him the most influential figure within the party.
Rumours and investigations about corruption cases involving Ekrem Imamoglu, who is seeking to become president in 2028, continued. He was also allegedly using Istanbul municipality funds to fund a vast media network that includes traditional media and social media platforms. Imamoglu was able to reshape the CHP’s approach, softening its hardline secularism and adopting a more pragmatic and populist style. He succeeded in attracting votes from conservative and Kurdish circles, as well as supporting the party’s traditional secular and Alawite bases. Despite coming from a prominent family in the contracting sector and having a large real estate fortune, he was able to win the support of the middle and poor classes.
The budget of the Istanbul municipality is 213 billion Turkish liras, exceeding the budgets of the ministries of foreign affairs, interior, justice, trade and tourism. Thanks to its share of the general state budget, along with its own revenues, the municipality has a strong and relatively independent structure. In the nineties of the last century, Recep Tayyip Erdogan succeeded in turning his success as mayor of Istanbul into a breakthrough towards national politics. Ekrem Imamoglu chose to focus on building a network of propaganda and public relations funded by municipal resources, rather than prioritizing municipal services, in order to pave the way for his role in public policy. At the same time, Ankara’s mayor, Mansur Yavaş, had more success by winning 60 percent of the vote, compared to Imamoglu’s 51 percent, and he too was seeking to run for president.
A corruption investigation launched by the Justice Ministry this year led to a lawsuit against Imamoglu on charges of corruption and transferring funds to the PKK terrorist organization. Imamoglu and his ally Özgur Özel, who wanted to turn this judicial issue into a political battle and rush Imamoglu’s candidacy for president in the next elections in three years’ time, sought to make it happen. Mansur Yavaş, who also wanted to run, was reluctant but did not publicly oppose it. Yavaş explained that despite Imamoglu’s strength within the CHP, he was more popular among the general public, stressing that there was no need to rush with regard to the upcoming elections.
Ekrem Imamoglu and a number of people close to him were arrested on charges of forming an illegal organization and damaging public property. As a result, his position as mayor of Istanbul was revoked, dealing a heavy blow to his political career. This is a momentous development with sharp effects. His imprisonment and cutting off the funding he was distributing from the municipal budget will significantly reduce his political influence. On the other hand, the CHP leadership tried to portray this issue as a political process and called for popular protests, which had some success. The party continues to escalate the political crisis by exploiting the grievance card and increasing the economic and political bill. The protests remained limited to the Republican Party and did not extend to the wider masses. At this stage, it will be necessary for the trial to reveal the evidence related to corruption and the extent of its impact on Turkish public opinion.
In Turkey, the judiciary is independent, but if the trials do not produce convincing results, the impression that Erdogan is campaigning against his political opponents will grow stronger, causing great damage. However, this hypothesis remains weak because such serious processes are not based on false evidence. Meanwhile, Imamoglu has lost his position as mayor of Istanbul, his degree, and municipal funds, making his return difficult on a personal level, but not impossible. In the future, the CHP will continue to use the grievance card, and the influence of Özgür Özel, Mansur Yavaş, and Kemal Kilicdaroglu within the party will increase. In the next three years until the elections, the new political landscape will depend on the CHP’s internal battle, trial events, as well as balances in domestic and international politics.
Source: Al-Sharq.com
