Lebanon is in a precarious position as Israel’s escalating attacks, coupled with deep-seated regional rivalries and a delicate internal balance, risk plunging the country into further instability.
Lebanon, weakened by internal challenges and a fragmented political landscape, faces an escalating threat from Israel’s intensified attacks along its borders and within Beirut. Despite international pleas for intervention, support largely favors Israel, exacerbating Lebanon’s vulnerability as Hezbollah’s limited responses struggle to prevent further encroachment. With strong regional influences from France, Iran, and Gulf nations adding layers of tension, Lebanon grapples with maintaining its stability amidst changing demographics, persistent political deadlock, and sectarian divisions. The threat of broader conflict looms as Israel targets both Hezbollah and civilian areas, risking a regional crisis that could impact the entire Middle East.
The Lebanese army is relatively weak; it lacks the capacity to defend its borders effectively and is not equipped to confront a formidable adversary like Israel. In fact, a five-kilometer section of the border has become similar to Gaza. Now, not only the border areas but also the entirety of Lebanon, especially Beirut, is being targeted and bombed. Over the past month, internal displacement has driven more than a million people from their homes. Within the next month or two, we may witness Israel launching strikes on nuclear facilities in Iran—a highly dangerous development that could escalate into a worldwide conflict if Iran becomes involved. Israel has adopted the tactic of targeting civilians to pressure the state or organization it seeks to influence. We must say “Never again,” and as journalists, it is our duty to document these events with images, photographs, and information.
The Israeli army has continued to intensify its attacks on Lebanon by air, land, and now sea. Since Israel’s assault on Gaza began on October 7, Lebanon’s border areas have been repeatedly bombed. What’s happening in Lebanon? Initially confined to southern Lebanon, the attacks have now spread towards Lebanon’s interior as Israel intensifies its operations. Not only border regions but all of Lebanon, especially Beirut, is being affected. Expectations are that attacks on Lebanon will intensify in the coming weeks.
Israel aims to force Hezbollah to withdraw to the Litani River, near Lebanon’s border, to weaken Hezbollah’s power, establish a buffer zone in southern Lebanon, and diminish its influence within the country—similar to its strategy with the Palestinian Liberation Organization in the 1970s. Lebanon’s appeals to international law receive no substantial response, as the international community remains silent regarding the genocide in Gaza. The U.S. provides unwavering military, political, financial, and diplomatic support to Israel, without which Israel’s operations in Lebanon and attacks on Gaza would be unsustainable.
This situation profoundly affects Lebanon’s political and social structure. Lebanon, a nation with a complex tapestry of ethnic and religious backgrounds, initially established a constitution favoring its then-majority Christian population following independence from France in 1943. Over the decades, however, rising Muslim populations have reshaped the country’s demographic and political landscape, increasing tensions—especially during the bloody civil war from 1975 to 1990.
Because of its civil war history, Lebanon is careful to avoid new conflicts. Many obstacles hinder its institutional, political, and economic functions: issues like the inability to elect a president or form a government persist. Additionally, various influential groups impact government offices; for example, Hezbollah’s authority is such that certain actions require its approval.
The Lebanese people have shown resilience and adaptability during crises. When the state fails to provide electricity, they set up their own solutions, such as solar panels or generators. Lebanon avoids conducting a new census because doing so would reveal current demographic ratios, potentially destabilizing the political balance and sparking another civil war.
In this challenging period, Lebanon’s future hinges on its ability to maintain its political and social equilibrium.
Israel holds primary influence in Lebanon, but France’s historical and cultural impact is also strong. Having once been a French colony, Lebanon retains political structures shaped by the ethnic and religious groups that developed during that period. France’s influence remains particularly strong among Lebanon’s Christian Maronite community. Iran, however, is also a major actor, perhaps rivaling Israel in influence. Iran played a crucial role in founding Hezbollah and has provided extensive support in its growth and military positioning.
Gulf nations have traditionally held sway in Lebanon, but their influence has waned as Hezbollah gained power, with some Gulf states almost entirely ceasing their aid.
Influences from the Ottoman period also persist; Lebanon employs both a secular structure and the *Mecelle-i Ahkam-ı Adliye*, a sharia-based legal code established by Ahmet Cevdet Pasha. Lebanon’s language still contains many Turkish words; for example, Hassan Nasrallah sometimes uses Turkish expressions like “yavaş yavaş” (slowly). The Republic of Turkey also has notable influence, while the United States maintains a presence through both Israel and France.
In this complex web of power struggles, Lebanon resembles Iraq, with competing influences from Iran and Gulf nations on one side, and the U.S., Israel, and France on the other.
Iran’s cautious stance is noteworthy; it has consistently expressed reluctance to enter the conflict. Following the events of October 7, Israel has sought to draw Iran into the war. Hezbollah’s restrained responses have even been criticized as undermining its purpose. Yet, Hassan Nasrallah has repeatedly clarified that their involvement is limited to support for Gaza and does not indicate a direct intention to engage in warfare. After Hezbollah’s limited actions failed to deter Israel, the group’s military leader, Fuad Shukur, and subsequently Hamas leader Ismail Haniyeh in Tehran, were targeted. Despite these provocations, Iran remains focused on avoiding direct conflict, aiming instead to re-enter the nuclear agreement under reformist leadership and to improve relations with the West.
However, Israel has been preparing for Hezbollah since their 2006 conflict, especially in intelligence, and is currently implementing a strategy to neutralize the group by targeting its arsenals and leaders.
The recent waves of migration are also reshaping Lebanon’s ethnic composition. As inter-sectarian tensions rise within Lebanon’s communities, Israel’s aggressive tactics threaten regional stability. Although the United Nations peacekeeping forces try to mediate, Israel has targeted these forces as well, viewing their presence as an obstacle.
Israel’s aggressive targeting of civilians as a strategy to pressure Hezbollah underscores the Zionist regime’s radical approach, which risks war across the entire region. This crisis affects not only Lebanon and Palestine but also endangers all neighboring populations.
