by Fatih Karakaya
In 1985, Le Figaro newspaper started a major debate with the headline “Will we still be French in 30 years?”. This theory, called “Le grand remplacement” by French racists, expressed the fear that immigrants would replace the French population by having more children.
Immigrant Population Growth and Concerns
The biggest proponents of this theory argued that immigrants would take over the majority through high fertility rates and that this would threaten French identity. In the 1970s and later periods of Turkish immigration, families had at least six children. Even then, half of the children were born in Turkey and half abroad.
The “fathers” who came to meet the growing need after the war would save up a tractor and go back. However, the money did not accumulate that easily, or it accumulated so much that it seemed sweet.
As the process dragged on, Western leaders said, “you cannot live alone, let us give you the opportunity and bring your families”.
A West that cared about the welfare of the people they brought as cheap laborers emerged. As a result, when families came, a longer life began.
Children born in Germany, France and other countries were added to the children from Turkey.
However, in the following generations, this number dropped to three, and nowadays to an average of two. Probably in the next generation this number will drop to one. While the first generations reproduced out of a sense of protection, the new generation is adapting to the current system.
The Status of Syrians in Türkiye and the Next Generation
At the moment Syrian immigrants may be having too many children, but we can predict that the next generations will behave like Turks. The percentage of Muslims in France is currently between 10-13%. However, in polls, the public perceives this rate as 60%. This perception is a reflection of the fear that immigrants will become the majority by having too many children and this is just a policy of fear-mongering.
But the reality is that a generation has grown up that is more and more integrated into the society they live in and whose heart beats for the German or French national team.
Along with this, the number of people marrying western girls/boys has also increased considerably. Of course, when there is a Turkish national match, millions of people’s hearts are with Turkey. No one can do that, but the same people now also beat for the teams of the countries they live in.
Despite this, there are still debates about the increase in the immigrant population and how this will affect the social structure. But historical data and demographic analysis show that these fears are greatly exaggerated. New generations of immigrants tend to integrate into society by blending in with the native population. This shows that the theory of great change is more of a politics of fear.
Otherwise, one of the biggest parties in Germany would be Turkish, in France the Muslim party would be strong enough to be the main opposition party. As you know, none of this is happening. Because inevitably the guest who stays for a long time becomes like a host.
