by Trita Parsi
A few thoughts on Haniyeh’s assassination.
No confirmation yet if it was Israel that killed Haniyeh and if it was through an airstrike. But if it was, the assassination provides Netanyahu several benefits beyond the obvious goal to take out Haniyeh in response to Oct 7:
1. It kills the ceasefire talks: Netanyahu has systematically sabotaged ceasefire talks because ending the war will likely end his political career. The signal he got from Kamala Harris was that she would not be as unforgiving as Biden has been of Netanyahu’s obstinance. The assassination buys Netanyahu several weeks, if not months, in which there will be no serious expectation of a ceasefire deal. Thus, the war will continue, as will Netanyahu’s reign as Prime Minister.
2. It may kill renewed US-Iran diplomacy: Pezeshkian campaigned on a platform of renewed US-Iran diplomacy. But with tensions heightening following the assassination, his chances to create a diplomatic opening with the US have been shut close, at least for now. Israel has opposed US-Iran diplomacy since the early 1990s, and creating political crises that raise the cost of starting talks has been the most effective way to prevent diplomacy.
3. It may get Netanyahu the war he’s been looking for: The attack has been deeply embarrassing to Tehran. It has destroyed Iran’s claim that it restored deterrence vis-a-vis Israel following Israel’s bombing of Iran’s consulate in Damascus on April 1. It has signaled Iran’s allies that they are not safe – not even in Tehran – and that Iran cannot protect them. Iran is, as a result, very likely to retaliate. As a result, Netanyahu has likely triggered an escalatory spiral that can result in a full-scale regional war that likely will drag the US into it as well. The calculation is that such a war will destroy and/or degrade many of Israel’s enemies and establish a new balance in the region that restores Israel’s dominance and freedom to maneuver. Israel cannot establish such a balance on its own, but the calculation is that the US can.
4. It corners Kamala Harris: As I mentioned, Harris has signaled that she will adopt a tougher line against Netanyahu. But if Netanyahu manages to start a regional war before she potentially becomes President, Netanyahu will not only have forced the US into the war but also cornered Harris and removed her ability to adopt a tougher line against Israel. Biden voluntarily (and foolishly) bear-hugged Biden. Through the assassination and its consequences, Netanyahu may be able to forcof takinge Harris to bear hug him.
As a reminder: If Biden had forced a ceasefire early on, all of this – including the risk of the US getting dragged into another senseless war in the Middle East – would have been avoided.
