by Enes Bayraklı
Iranian President Raisi and his delegation were killed when their helicopter crashed.
We will probably never know whether this incident was actually the result of a negligent accident or sabotage.
Even if the Iranian regime knows the answer, at the end of the day it will publicize whichever scenario suits its interests.
After the incident, three scenarios come to the fore and there are some information supporting all three scenarios.
The first scenario is based on the idea that this was an accident based on negligence and technical errors. This scenario seems quite rational for those who know Iran’s bad record in aviation, which has been subjected to Western embargoes for years.
The second scenario predicts that Raisi has fallen victim to the power and power struggle within Iran. According to this scenario, it is highly suspicious that Raisi , who was in the running for the religious leadership after the 85-year-old Khamenei, died in a helicopter crash.
The fact that Khamenei’s son, Mucttaeba Khamenei, is among the candidates for Khamenei’s successor strengthens these suspicions.
On the other hand, the fact that the Iranian President was travelling in a technically inadequate helicopter and the fake news spread in the Iranian media after the accident make this situation even more suspicious.
The fact that the Iranian authorities were unable to locate the President’s helicopter for six hours is also highly suspicious.
It is even suspicious that the Iranian state asked for help from Turkey, even though it knew that this would damage its image. This assistance may have even been used to send a message to its own public opinion: ‘Look, we could not find it, we had to ask for help from outside’.
We don’t need to explain how unusual it is for a state like Iran to ask for Turkey’s help in finding its own President.
The third scenario inevitably points to Israel. The tension between Iran and Israel is well known. Just a month ago, the two sides came back from the brink of war. Everyone knows that the Netanyahu administration, which has failed to achieve a military, political and strategic success in Gaza and has been cornered in the international public opinion, has a plan to spread the war to the region. On the other hand, we also know that Israel has been blaming Iran for the 7 October attack from the beginning.
Therefore, there is reason to believe all three scenarios, but at the end of the day, we should not expect the Iranian regime to accept either internal or external assassination allegations.
This is because internal assassination allegations would cause serious destabilisation in Iran, while an Israeli assassination would necessarily be an act of war.
For these reasons, the Iranian regime will most likely announce that it was an accident.
The developments in the coming months will most likely tell us which of these three scenarios is more accurate.
Therefore, everyone will be watching Iran closely in the coming months.
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