by Prof. Dr. Ahmet Uysal
The Arab world continues to suffer from successive crises and years of ongoing destruction. In an article published last year, we noted that Sudan would be the second victim in 2024, after Gaza. Indeed, this year witnessed major humanitarian tragedies in both Gaza and Sudan, yet the Sudanese crisis received insufficient international attention. With the advent of the new year and the continued devastation in Gaza, signs of a thaw have begun to emerge in Sudan. The bloody two-year crisis, marked by murder, looting, rape, and displacement, appears to be coming to an end, giving the Sudanese people some breathing space. The repercussions of this crisis were not limited to Sudan itself; they directly impacted the stability of the entire region. The Rapid Support Forces, which received clear support from the United Arab Emirates, sought to seize power through a military coup in 2023, exacerbating the chaos and leading to a dangerous escalation of the internal conflict.
Over the past two years, Sudan has witnessed widespread devastation. In addition to the intermittent clashes, the Rapid Support Forces (RSF), which has recruited mercenaries from several African countries, have committed serious violations in the areas under its control. These violations have been reflected in reports by the UN Human Rights Commission. At least 14 million Sudanese have been displaced from their homes and are currently suffering from severe economic crises. Criticisms have also been raised about the looting or obstruction of humanitarian aid in areas under RSF control. Sudan, once considered the “breadbasket of Africa,” is currently suffering from a serious food crisis, with reports indicating that approximately 25 million people inside the country face severe food shortages.
After violent clashes, the Sudanese Armed Forces (SAF) gained complete control of the capital, Khartoum, in recent months, giving them a significant advantage and altering the balance and morale of the war. As for the Rapid Support Forces (RSF), which withdrew from Khartoum, their tactical return has become almost impossible. These developments also hold significance in terms of international legitimacy, as some countries have been promoting the notion that what is happening in Sudan is a civil war and that the two sides are equal in power and legitimacy. Indeed, the commander of the RSF, Mohamed Hamdan Dagalo, nicknamed “Hemedti,” was received last year in several African capitals as if he were a head of state.
* As the crisis draws to a close, countries that did not support the coup in Sudan—primarily Egypt, Saudi Arabia, Qatar, and Turkey—will emerge as beneficiaries of the new situation. The Egyptian government has been deeply troubled by the crisis in Sudan, fearing a recurrence of similar chaos within its own borders. Stability in Sudan, a vital waterway for the Nile, is crucial for Egypt, and the pressure from Sudanese refugees on Egyptian soil could ease. Turkey and Qatar are also seen as winners in these developments, as both view regional stability as a strategic asset, oppose military coups and foreign intervention, and view a strong Sudan as a natural ally in the region.
Resolving the crisis in Sudan would enhance stability in the Horn of Africa, the Sahel, and the Red Sea Basin, regions that have suffered from the repercussions of armed conflict and massive displacement. Agriculture and trade within Sudan and across the region have been severely affected by the war, but there is hope that these conditions will improve with the ongoing de-escalation. Ending the chaos in Sudan is also a win for countries that have hosted large numbers of Sudanese refugees, such as Egypt, Chad, South Sudan, and even Ethiopia. These countries are already facing difficult economic challenges, making the return of stability in Sudan of paramount importance.
* The recent developments in Sudan will not be welcomed by Western countries seeking to maintain chaos in the Middle East, especially Israel. Although the West supported the liberal faction that toppled al-Bashir’s regime through protests, it was not truly interested in a genuine transition to democracy in the country. Today, General Abdel Fattah al-Burhan, who currently leads the country, announced that the army will hand over power to civilians after the war ends. Despite the multiple crises facing Sudan, the end of Western sanctions and foreign intervention, and leaving the decision-making process to the Sudanese themselves, could open the door to a true renaissance. Sudan is a country rich in natural resources such as oil and gold, in addition to fertile land and human resources, which enable it to achieve rapid progress if the right conditions are met.
Source: https://al-sharq.com
