Trump’s re-election could profoundly impact Turkey’s foreign policy, affecting its relations with the US, Israel, and Arab countries, while influencing Turkey’s domestic stance toward the US.
Donald Trump’s return to the US presidency could have extensive effects on Turkey’s foreign policy, challenging its relations with the US, Israel, and the Arab world. Trump’s support for Israel and his confrontational approach toward Iran might complicate Turkey’s regional stance and impact its balancing act within the Middle East. In Turkey’s domestic politics, Trump’s pragmatic, economics-driven style could lead to both cooperative opportunities and heightened anti-US sentiment, depending on the administration’s policy moves. These dynamics suggest Turkey may need to reorient its foreign policy strategy to navigate a landscape marked by both new alliances and renewed tensions.
Donald Trump’s re-election as US president could significantly impact Turkey’s regional relations and domestic politics. With his foreign policy driven by pragmatism and often personal diplomacy, Trump diverges from the traditional US approach. Here, we examine how Trump’s re-election could influence Turkey’s foreign policy and in which areas these changes may be most pronounced.
Impact on Turkey-Israel Relations
The Trump administration’s pro-Israel stance could increase tension in Turkish-Israeli relations. The US’s recognition of Jerusalem as Israel’s capital and support for Israeli settlements in the West Bank during Trump’s previous term led Turkey to adopt a critical position. Turkey and Israel continue to clash on key issues, especially regarding Palestine. Trump’s firm support for Israel might prompt Turkey to maintain its distance from Israel and even adopt a firmer stance.
However, strategic cooperation on issues like Eastern Mediterranean energy resources remains a possibility. US involvement with Israel on this front could also push Turkey toward a more balanced policy to safeguard its energy security interests. While Trump’s inclination to keep ties strong with Israel may challenge Turkey’s position, it may also prompt the US to encourage more balanced Turkey-Israel relations for mutual interests in energy.
In this context, Trump’s presidency could compel Turkey to take a stronger stand on Palestine while testing possibilities for cooperation on strategic issues like energy security. This could make managing both tension and potential cooperation with Israel essential for Turkey’s foreign policy.
Impact on Turkey-US Relations
Trump’s re-election brings with it factors that could complicate Turkey-US relations. During his first term, issues like the S-400 missile defense system, the F-35 program, and sanction threats created tension. Although Trump’s personal, relationship-based approach helped ease some of these strains, underlying strategic disagreements remained unresolved.
In a second term, Turkey’s relations with Russia would likely draw renewed scrutiny. Trump had previously threatened sanctions over Turkey’s S-400 purchase but adopted a more cautious approach to enforcement. Given Trump’s diplomacy with Russia and Turkey’s strategic role in NATO, a slight thaw in US-Turkey relations could occur, though it may be limited by the stance of other US institutions like Congress.
Trump’s focus on economic policy could open opportunities to expand Turkey-US trade. The Trump administration might view Turkey as a viable alternative to China, given Turkey’s location and production capacity. However, until issues like the S-400 are fully resolved, the specter of sanctions may continue to strain the relationship.
Impact on Turkey’s Domestic Policy
Trump’s election could shift how the US is perceived in Turkish domestic politics. His pragmatism and economic focus might encourage the Turkish government to adopt a more flexible stance in cooperation. Turkey’s domestic tone toward the US could soften if Trump’s administration remains open to collaboration on key issues.
However, if Trump were to impose sanctions on Turkey, anti-US sentiment could grow and become a unifying force in Turkish domestic politics, particularly among nationalist groups. Such rhetoric could amplify, reacting to Trump’s policies on Turkey. Conversely, if Trump provides economic and security support, Turkey’s government might prioritize cooperative relations with the US.
Impact on Turkey-Arab Relations
Trump’s Middle East policies have greatly impacted regional dynamics, affecting Turkey’s relations with Arab nations. His close relationship with Israel has strained ties with some Arab countries while strengthening them with others. For instance, the UAE and Bahrain, encouraged by Trump, have deepened their relations with Israel through normalization agreements. Trump’s re-election could thus signal a shift in Turkey’s relations with Arab states that have pursued normalization with Israel.
Meanwhile, Trump’s tough stance on Iran might align Turkey with Saudi Arabia and other Gulf states in shared concerns over Iran. Although Turkey seeks a balanced approach toward Iran, Trump’s anti-Iran policies could challenge Turkey to navigate a delicate balance. Strengthening ties with Arab countries could require Turkey to consider Trump’s confrontational stance toward Iran.
Furthermore, Trump’s support for allies like Saudi Arabia and the UAE will influence Turkey’s relations with Arab countries. Turkey may need to carefully balance regional competition and cooperation with these states, while Trump’s closeness with his Middle Eastern allies could complicate Turkey’s diplomatic landscape.
Conclusion
Trump’s re-election would introduce multi-dimensional effects on Turkey’s foreign policy. While Turkey might find new opportunities in security, trade, and energy cooperation with the US, it could also face a challenging period of strategic and political disagreements. Trump’s Middle East policies and support for Israel will likely shape Turkey’s relationships with Israel and Arab countries, prompting Turkey to reevaluate its foreign policy strategies in the region.
In summary, the relationship between Trump’s administration and Turkey will likely be a dynamic one, shaped by both sides striving to maximize their interests through pragmatic approaches.
