Trump’s re-election could lead to stronger Israeli influence over Gaza and Palestine, while Biden has a limited opportunity to counterbalance this before leaving office.
Trump’s return to the presidency may empower Israel to assert greater control over Gaza and Palestine, with his administration likely to push for policies favoring Israel’s annexation ambitions. However, Biden, in his final months, has a limited chance to introduce measures like a UN resolution or an arms embargo to moderate Israel’s actions and provide some respite for Gaza’s residents.
The U.S. elections, eagerly awaited worldwide, have concluded with Donald Trump, the Republican candidate, re-elected as the 47th President after a single-term hiatus. Despite media predictions of a tight race that could have seen Kamala Harris win by a small margin, Trump achieved a decisive victory. Not only did he win by nearly five million votes, but he also secured a commanding 86-delegate lead over Harris (312 to 226) and gained majorities in both the Senate and the House, achieving a rare “super majority.”
The focus now turns to what Trump’s second term might hold, especially in foreign policy. While domestic issues will be central to his administration, it’s worth examining what this new term could mean for the ongoing Israel-Palestine conflict.
During his campaign and post-election, Trump emphasized his goal to “end wars, not start new ones.” While this pledge brings the Russia-Ukraine War to mind, it also raises questions about Gaza. Given his close ties to the Jewish lobby and past promises, it’s unlikely Trump will take actions that would curtail Israel’s interests in Gaza. Indeed, his approach may favor a solution in Israel’s interest, potentially giving the green light to Israel’s annexation of Gaza, as hinted by his recent message to Israeli Prime Minister Netanyahu.
Such a move would disregard international law and the United Nations’ calls for Palestinian rights. The ongoing suffering of Gaza’s two million residents, including 43,000 who have lost their lives in the conflict, could be overshadowed in favor of Israel’s ambitions. Trump may also pick up where he left off on the West Bank annexation issue, a stance he showed at the end of his first term. Like his declarations regarding Jerusalem and the Golan Heights, he may consider the West Bank as Israeli territory.
Trump’s revived “Deal of the Century,” initially presented in January 2020, could also be re-implemented, aiming to establish a symbolic Palestinian state, ultimately diminishing Palestinian sovereignty.
In addition, the Abraham Accords, which stagnated after Trump’s term, might be resurrected, with Saudi Arabia facing renewed pressure to normalize relations with Israel. Although Saudi Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman recently expressed that normalization is contingent on resolving the Palestinian issue, he may feel compelled to relent under Trump’s renewed influence.
Such shifts could mean that Israel would strengthen its ties with regional powers while the Palestinian cause recedes further from international agendas.
Despite this bleak outlook, there remains an opportunity for Biden to counterbalance Trump’s anticipated moves before leaving office. Just as Obama abstained from vetoing a UN resolution in 2016 that condemned Israeli settlements, Biden could take similar steps to curb Israeli actions in Gaza. A UN Security Council resolution that would impose sanctions on Israel or send a peacekeeping force to Gaza could provide a temporary reprieve for its residents.
Additionally, Biden could consider an arms embargo, which would weaken Israel’s military capabilities and restrain Netanyahu’s government, which relies heavily on U.S. support. Biden could also support an investigation by the International Criminal Court (ICC) into alleged war crimes by Netanyahu and his former Defense Minister Gallant, who have so far evaded accountability due to U.S. intervention.
While Trump’s re-election signals challenging times ahead for Gaza and Palestine, Biden has a window to impose measures that may restrain Netanyahu, sending a clear message in support of international law and justice. These actions would hold Netanyahu accountable and could potentially offer Gaza’s people a brief respite from the violence they have endured.
