What Would Be the Consequences if Turkey Produces Nuclear Weapons?
“Some people have missiles with nuclear warheads, but I don’t want one. I don’t accept that.”
These words, spoken by President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan in a speech in September, didn’t attract much attention in Turkey but echoed in international circles.
Was Erdoğan’s statement, as some suggest, a simple reaction to the countries with nuclear weapons or a reflection of domestic public opinion? Or, is Erdoğan, who resisted Western warnings about the Russian S-400 defense system, now targeting nuclear weapons?
How realistic is this possibility, and what could be the consequences?
Erdoğan’s remarks on nuclear weapons came just days before the launch of Operation Peace Spring in northern Syria in early October. His statement questioning the Treaty on the Non-Proliferation of Nuclear Weapons (NPT) was interpreted by Western media as a sign that “his ambitions are not limited to Syria.”
Turkey’s Current Situation and Nuclear Weapons
Turkey currently hosts around 50 U.S.-made nuclear weapons, but Ankara does not have the right to use them. Besides Turkey, countries like Italy, Germany, the Netherlands, and Belgium also host U.S. nuclear weapons deployed many years ago.
In February, the United States announced its withdrawal from the Intermediate-Range Nuclear Forces (INF) Treaty, which had been a cornerstone of nuclear arms control since the Cold War. Although no public concerns were raised, there are fears that Turkey might pursue nuclear weapons as the INF Treaty collapses.
Selim Sazak, Director of Strategy Research at TUM, notes that Erdoğan’s remarks reflect a reaction to the international system’s double standards, and there are no signs that Turkey is seeking to develop nuclear weapons. Sazak interprets Erdoğan’s message not as “if you have them, we should too,” but rather, “if we don’t have them, neither should you.”
The Likelihood of Turkey Developing Nuclear Weapons
Jessica C. Varnum, Deputy Director of the U.S.-based James Martin Center for Nonproliferation Studies, has been following Erdoğan’s statements for years. She argues that contrary to some Western perceptions, Erdoğan’s speech was more about criticizing the current unfair global order than signaling any intent to produce nuclear weapons.
Varnum believes that the costs of pursuing a nuclear weapons program would far outweigh any benefits for the Turkish government: “The damage wouldn’t just be economic but would also harm Turkey’s international reputation.”
The Risks of Developing Nuclear Weapons
Varnum points out that given Turkey’s current technical capabilities, it would likely need to turn to the black market to acquire nuclear weapons technology. In today’s world of satellite technology, hiding such a program would be nearly impossible. If Turkey were caught developing nuclear weapons, it would likely lose the benefits it has gained from being a party to disarmament treaties and would face sanctions from both the U.S. and the broader international community.
These sanctions would not only hurt the Turkish economy but also impact the ruling party’s political standing. Furthermore, Varnum emphasizes that nuclear weapons would be ineffective against threats like the PKK.
The Historical and Regional Context of Nuclear Weapons
Nuclear weapons were last used in 1945 against Japan. Since then, the Soviet Union, China, the United Kingdom, France, and the U.S. have all developed nuclear arsenals. In 1968, these nations signed the Treaty on the Non-Proliferation of Nuclear Weapons (NPT). Turkey signed the treaty in 1980. As a NATO member since 1952, Turkey is also protected under Article 5 of the alliance, which guarantees collective defense in case of an attack.
While the NPT has slowed the spread of nuclear weapons, it hasn’t completely prevented their proliferation. Countries like Israel, India, Pakistan, and North Korea have developed nuclear arsenals without facing severe consequences.
Iran’s Situation and Potential Regional Developments
Iran is approaching the technical capability to produce nuclear weapons, with uranium enrichment levels close to 90%. If its program faces no setbacks, Iran could become the 10th country with nuclear weapons this year. Given this, other countries in the region might also seek nuclear weapons—not necessarily to use them but for deterrence.
Saudi Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman has stated that if Iran develops nuclear weapons, Saudi Arabia may have to follow suit. Meanwhile, the United Arab Emirates has been keeping information about its nuclear facilities under wraps.
The potential for a nuclear arms race in the Middle East is rising, not for war but for deterrence purposes.
Understanding the Nuclear Program
Civilian nuclear programs typically involve uranium enrichment, which is used as fuel for nuclear reactors—a standard procedure overseen by the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA). The danger arises when this enriched uranium is diverted to other facilities and further enriched to levels suitable for nuclear weapons. This is what Iran and North Korea have done.
Technically, Turkey could convert its civilian nuclear capacity into a military program once its reactors are fully operational, joining countries like Brazil, Japan, and Germany that possess similar capabilities. However, such developments are heavily monitored and restricted.
In conclusion, while it is not impossible for Turkey to produce a nuclear bomb, it is highly unlikely under current circumstances due to sanctions and other international pressures. But who knows what the future holds?
