September 2024 was a very positive month for Turkish defense and aerospace exports.
*1 – September 30, 2024: 566,801,000 USD (32% increase compared to 2023)
*January 1 – September 30, 2024: USD 4,304,304,000 (12% increase compared to 2023).
Turan Oğuz, a Turkish defense industry expert, commented on Turkish defense industry’s performance as follows in one of his tweets;
In September 2024, the sector broke the all-time September sectoral export record with revenues of approximately 567 million USD. The previous record was set in September 2023 with approximately 430 million USD.
While Turkey’s total exports in September 2024 decreased by 2%, the defense and aerospace industry showed a positive differentiation and became the second sector with the highest increase of 32% in September 2024. (Figure 1)
The sector’s share in Turkey’s exports in September 2024 was 2.9%, and its share in Turkey’s total exports in the first 9 months of the year was a record-breaking 2.6% (Figure 1).
Compared to 2023, 6 months of the first 9 months were closed with an increase and 3 months with a decrease.
2023 EXPORT PERFORMANCE AND 2024 EXPECTATIONS
Turkey completed 2023 with export revenues of approximately USD 5.5 billion. In 2023, approximately 75% of the sector’s exports consisted of defense and 25% of civil aviation revenues.
If the export trend in the first 9 months continues throughout the year, 2024 could be completed with exports of USD 6.2 billion. With a safety factor of 7%, this figure could be realized between USD 5.7 – 6.7 billion.
In a speech in October 2023, Mehmet Fatih Kacır, Minister of Industry and Technology, announced the sector’s export target for 2024 as USD 10 billion. In a speech in July 2024, Vice President Cevdet Yılmaz also stated that the sector’s expectation for 2024 is to reach 7 billion USD exports. If there is no additional positive performance in the remaining 3 months, the 7 billion USD target may not be reached.
Despite the positive indicators, the sector is still not strong enough to meet the official targets announced and is still unable to display a continuously rising graph.
While global defense industry exports are increasing beyond expectations due to wars and tensions, Turkey’s failure to reach its 2024 target will certainly not be a positive development.
