by Dr. Mustafa Öztop
Many developments in the world in recent years have shown that Turkey is rapidly moving towards becoming a “Great Power”. The developments after the July 15, 2016 Coup and Occupation Attempt, which was a turning point for Turkey and marked the beginning of Turkey’s liberation from its shackles and becoming more prominent in foreign policy, show more clearly how this progress has been shaped. In addition, the struggle between the great powers in world politics and the shaping of conflicts and crises provides important data to better understand this process.
In particular, the increasing competition between great powers such as the US, China, and Russia has opened up space for other actors, Israel’s increasing attacks on Iran and its proxy forces in the Middle East, and Turkey’s ability to maintain its own stability and bring stability to its immediate environment in such a conflict-ridden environment has made Turkey stand out compared to others. In addition to this, Turkey’s contributions to maintaining stability in Syria, Libya, Karabakh in its immediate neighborhood, and in Somalia, the Balkans, and Turkestan when it expanded its area a little more, enabled Turkey to escape from this period of crisis with the least damage and to clearly differentiate itself from the others. Particularly during Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, Turkey, by pursuing a policy of principled neutrality and full independence in balance, gave its foreign policy a special position and increased its influence in world politics by observing national interests, international norms, and balances. On the other hand, Turkey, which has been at the forefront of the reactions against Israel in Gaza, has left its mark on world politics with its leading role in the process of the overthrow of the Baath regime in Syria by the opponents of the regime and the transfer of the Syrian government to the control of the Syrians.
ATTRITIONAL RIVALRY
Donald Trump’s targeting of China during his first US presidential term and the pandemic that began in 2020 have severely curbed the momentum of China, which is rapidly rising in world politics. The periodic escalation of US-China tensions has negatively affected the energy of both actors. The US has struggled to rally European countries behind its actions against China and to assert its leadership in the world. More confrontation with China has also harmed the US. This is because Trump’s clearer stance against China caused China to show reflexes and China’s influence in the world, especially in the fields of economy, technology, and production-supply chains, was more clearly seen. In addition, Trump’s protectionist economic approach and his open economic suppression of other countries for American interests weakened the confidence in US leadership in the world. In this process, the competition between the US, the world’s biggest power, and China, the world’s fastest-rising power, has offered some opportunities for the powers outside this competition.
Turkey, on the other hand, has managed to maintain its stability despite facing some economic challenges. Military operations, starting with the Euphrates Shield, have provided a secure and stable area on the Syrian border. As a result of these operations, Turkey has removed the sphere of influence of terrorist organizations from its borders. In addition, with Operation Peace Spring, Turkey strengthened its presence in an environment where great powers such as the US and Russia are present, and in these operations, it both improved its military capabilities and showed these capabilities to the world.
In the Eastern Mediterranean, it weakened the initiatives of countries taking an anti-Turkey stance by signing an agreement on the delimitation of maritime jurisdiction areas with the Libyan Government of National Accord in 2019. On the other hand, in coordination with the legitimate government in Libya, where conflicts and crises intensified, it ensured the establishment of a more stable environment than before. In addition, Russia, which became more visible in the Mediterranean and Africa during this period, was disturbed by Turkey’s presence in Libya and pursued a Libya policy that would escalate the rivalry with Turkey. At that time, Putin, who had increased his influence in Turkey’s neighborhood, did not adequately foresee the effects of his confrontation with Turkey from Crimea to Turkestan, from the Mediterranean to Africa. Russia’s invasion of Ukraine had not yet begun, and it could not have been foreseen that it would last so long and turn into an area where Russia’s energy would be severely weakened. What was possible to know, however, was Turkey’s growing influence in the region and the fact that Turkey had the means to be a challenge for Russia as much as Russia was active around Turkey.
During the Biden era, the US focused more on Russia, even if it continued to compete with China. During Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, the Russian army lost serious energy. In particular, Putin’s desire not to limit the occupation of Ukraine to the Donbas region but to seize Kyiv caused some European countries, which had resisted to avoid confrontation with Russia, to take an anti-Russian position. In this period, Russia’s advances in Ukraine, but its difficulties in finding troops on the ground, and its serious loss of influence in Africa, the Middle East, the Caucasus, and Turkestan showed that Russia was trapped in the Near Periphery Doctrine, in other words, the Anglo-Saxon alliance trapped Russia in this doctrine. In this process, the arms industry, which reflects Russia’s influence in the world, lost serious prestige in the face of Turkish UCAVs. From Syria to Karabakh, from Libya to Ukraine, Turkish UCAVs have ushered in an era in which unmanned aerial vehicles have become a decisive factor on the battlefields.
CENTURY OF TÜRKİYE
During this period, Türkiye became the biggest supporter of Azerbaijan in the liberation of Karabakh. As a result of this critical development in Karabakh, the Turkic world entered a new phase on the way to the “Idea of Turkic Unity”. The Turkic Council was renamed the “Organization of Turkic States” at the leaders’ summit in Istanbul. The organization also adopted the “2040 Vision Document for the Turkic World” at this summit. Following these steps, the organization has rapidly made many developments to strengthen cooperation and integration in the Turkic world.
Turkey’s agreement with Libya was followed by a process of repairing its relations with Egypt. Thus, Turkey dismantled the bloc positioned against it in the Eastern Mediterranean. It also succeeded in conducting grain diplomacy between Russia and Ukraine and prevented the world from experiencing a grain crisis. Turkey’s efforts to negotiate peace between Russia and Ukraine were followed with interest around the world.
The Turkish Defense Industry has made changes that will shape the history of warfare, especially Turkish UCAVs. Many countries showed demand for Turkish Defense Industry products. After October 7, 2023, attention turned to Palestine. President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan’s statement that “Hamas is a people’s movement like the Kuva-yı Milliye,” has thwarted Israel’s attempt to create perception by reducing its 75-year occupation to Hamas’ Aqsa Deluge operation.
WORN OUT BY OCCUPATION AND LUST FOR INFLUENCE
Iran’s recent actions in the Middle East have led to the deaths of many people in Syria. Iran has used its proxy forces on the ground to realize its goals. Iran has mostly emphasized the Palestinian issue in its rhetoric and claimed to have established an axis of resistance. However, it has failed to respond to the Israeli attacks on Muslims and proxy forces in Gaza, Syria and Lebanon at the expected level.
Every time there is pressure on Israel, it launches an attack on Iran, diverting attention and distracting from the pressure on it. Iran, which failed to show the expected reactions to the Israeli attacks, started to lose its prestige and influence in the region. The martyrdom of Hamas leader Ismail Haniyya in Iran, the assassination of Hezbollah leader Hassan Nasrallah by Israel, the Israeli attack on the Iranian consulate in Syria, and Iran’s failure to provide the expected support to its proxy forces against the explosion of Hezbollah radios weakened Iran’s Shiite Crescent goals in the Middle East. Strategic patience turned into strategic loss. Finally, Iran’s almost complete loss of influence in Syria as a result of the developments in Syria has turned Iran’s Shiite Crescent goals into a collapsing Shiite Crescent dream.
The losses inflicted on Israel by the Izz ad-Din al-Qassam Brigades in the Aqsa Flood operation and its aftermath, as well as the hostages they held, undermined the security approach in Israel’s occupation policies that it has been pursuing for years. Israel has faced the reality that it is not possible to establish security in the region by massacring more civilians and occupying more territory.
STABILIZING FORCE
While the world has turned into a ring of fire in these developments in the last 10 years, Turkey has managed to become a center of stability. In addition to this, Turkey has recently added a new one to its peace-building steps in the world. Under Turkey’s mediation, the first step was taken for a new beginning based on peace and cooperation in the resolution of the conflict between Somalia and Ethiopia. Turkey has become a prominent center in the resolution of conflicts between states by carrying out the activities and works expected from the United Nations on its own. Thus, Turkey has made significant progress in becoming a leading actor not only in its region but also in the world. Recently, Turkey has clearly contributed to peace and diplomacy in Syria, the blockade of Qatar, Karabakh, Libya, Russia-Ukraine talks, the Grain Corridor, the Somali-Ethiopia Conflict, and the Palestinian issues, and has become a decisive actor in preventing possible instability in the Balkans and Turkistan regions.
From today’s perspective, the Syrian people were building a new free Syria in Turkey, which opened its doors to them after 13 years of hardship. The Syrian people, who have undergone a serious process of cooperation and integration with Turkey in this 13-year period, have tended to determine the future of Free Syria with the education they received in Turkey. Turkey’s role in the reconstruction of Syria not only excited Syrians but also set an example for other countries. The last example of this happened recently. Lebanese Prime Minister Najib Mikati emphasized Turkey’s support in every difficult period that Lebanon has gone through and said, “We have learned that we must trust in God first, then in Lebanon’s friends and especially in Turkey.”
THE AXIS OF RESURRECTON ON THE HORIZON
In the Middle East, while Israel is trying to gain space and influence by destroying, Turkey has gained friends and trust by building peace and stability. Although there are those who think that Israel is expanding its occupations and sphere of influence in Syria and the region, Israel’s situation is similar to that of Russia, which alarmed the world with its expansionist policy before the invasion of Ukraine, but today, as it expands, it becomes more difficult to control its territory and loses energy and prestige with the new fronts it opens every day. In short, the Turkish Century is not an empty phrase. Turkey is emerging as the “new great power” in world politics and with each passing day, Turkey’s influence is raising hopes for peace in the world.
Turkey’s rise despite the increasing crisis and instability in the world indicates that Turkey will be the power that will stop Israel’s occupation and destruction, especially the genocide in Gaza, and establish peace and stability in Palestine. Of course, the important thing is to stop the Israeli massacres as soon as possible. It does not matter who is doing it, but current developments show that Turkey is moving step by step towards stopping the Israeli occupation in Gaza. Damascus, the capital of Free Syria, is the key that will open the gates of Free Jerusalem. Instead of the “Axis of Resistance” against Israel, which is associated with Iran, the “Axis of Resurrection”, which will be associated with Turkey, is on the horizon.
For many years, Turkey has had to pursue policies focused on ensuring security, defense and eliminating the games being played around it. This was because Turkey’s power capacity at the time and the geopolitical equation in the world and the region limited Turkey’s room for maneuver. However, there have been some rapid developments in the recent period. The FETÖ leader died, and then the Baath regime in Syria was replaced by anti-regime Syrians, most of whom were supported by Turkey. As a result of these developments, Turkey has become a game-changer, a balance-changer, an equation-determining country.
This article was published in Yeni Şafak Newspaper on 25.12.2024.
