by Turan Oğuz
What would happen if Iran used 120 MRBMs (medium-range ballistic missiles), 30 cruise missiles and 70 UCAVs (kamikaze unmanned aerial vehicles, or OWA-UAVs) to attack Turkey today, in the same way it attacked Israel last week?
Land-based defence systems in Turkey’s inventory that can counter such threats:
*For MRBM: S-400
*For cruise missile: Korkut ASW, Sungur ASW, Hisar-A+ ASW, Hisar-O+ ASW, Hawk, F-16, KORAL and many other electronic warfare systems
For *KHA: 20mm, 35mm, 40mm air defence guns; Stinger MANPADS; Sungur MANPADS; Atılgan YHSS; Zıpkın YHSS; Sungur YHSS; Korkut YHSS; ALKA LSS; Armol LSS; Rapier; Hisar-A+ HSS; Hisar-O+ HSS, F-16, KORAL and many other electronic warfare systems.
The S-400 can only protect Ankara and its surroundings due to its deployment location. Nevertheless, it cannot be very effective against ballistic missiles, as we have not yet established a sufficient early warning and radar network and we have only one fleet.
Although systems such as Hisar-O+ HSS, Hisar-A+ HSS, Sungur YHSS, Sungur MANPADS, ALKA LSS, Armol LSS have entered service, they are still in very small numbers in the inventory. Their impact may be limited.
Since Hawk and Rapier are very old, a serious impact should not be expected.
Effects of a similar attack on Turkey:
In a similar attack, Turkey would suffer considerable damage compared to Israel.
Our only advantage would be that some of Iran’s weapons would fall before reaching Turkey due to their technical inadequacies in many areas such as guidance, accuracy, engines, explosives, resistance to electronic jamming, etc.
Probably all MRBM missiles that could reach Turkey would have penetrated our defences, and those that could have hit would have caused considerable damage.
In this case, since a small number of cruise missiles were used, probably only a small number of missiles that could reach Turkey could have been destroyed. However, if a large number of missiles were used in another attack, our active systems would be very inadequate in terms of numbers, and some of them could penetrate our defences and cause damage.
Since Turkey has a large number of electronic warfare systems and weapons capable of intercepting UCAVs, and Iran’s products are very ineffective, most of them could have been intercepted.
Conclusion:
Turkey has achieved a great deal so far. It continues to do very good work. However, we need time to establish an integrated and layered air defence system. This period is 2028-2032 for the development of systems that can counter Iran’s MRBM missiles and then enter into inventory in sufficient numbers; 2025-2028 for the production and entry into inventory in sufficient numbers of improved systems that can counter cruise missiles. The systems we have are probably sufficient to intercept 70-90 per cent of UAV attacks at this intensity. But in my personal opinion, if the attack was carried out with 400+ UCAVs at the same time, the number of elements that could penetrate our defences could increase significantly.
