President Erdoğan and his ally Devlet Bahçeli have opened a new way for a permanent solution to the PKK terrorism. Bahçeli said he will even welcome to see Abdullah Öcalan in the parliament, calling for the dissolution of the PKK. He also accepted a pardon to Öcalan if the latter disbands the terrorist organization.
What do the speeches first by Devlet Bahçeli and then by President Erdoğan mean?
According to MAH Ajansı;
1. The Threat in Northern Syria: Turkey’s biggest national security threat is the terrorist state to be established in northern Syria. Behind this structure are great powers such as Israel and the United States. Today, there is a trained army(!) of 80 thousand people in the region. 30 thousand of this army is equipped with heavy weapons and is capable of using missiles. It is clear that this structure, which has aircrafts such as drones and helicopters in addition to airplanes, poses a major survival problem for Turkey.
2. Turkey’s Inevitable Military Operation: Turkey’s only option to eliminate this threat is military intervention. When the conditions are right, Turkey will carry out the largest military operation in its history in northern Syria and northern Iraq.
During this major operation, the West will stand against Turkey as a bloc, while Israel and the US will directly support the terrorist organization PYD. Although some actors such as Trump may change the equation, Turkey must ensure complete unity internally before opening this front externally.
3. Internal Unity and Security: Before tackling external threats, Turkey needs to ensure complete unity and order at home. One of the most important domestic issues is the presence of the terrorist organization PKK inside Turkey and its political extensions.
Either the PKK will be completely dismantled on the İmralı axis and the DEM Party will enter a process of dissolution, or very harsh measures will be taken against the PKK and its political extensions, which may even include the closure of the DEM Party. Because the slightest internal problem during the Cross-Border Operation will be intolerable for both the state and the country.
4. Bahçeli’s Strategic Move: Devlet Bahçeli’s statements are one of the turning points in Turkish political history. Bahçeli said that Abdullah Öcalan, the head of the terrorist organization, should declare that the PKK had accepted defeat and that the organization would be liquidated. This proposal would mean that the founder of the terrorist organization would admit defeat. If this happens, the PKK’s armed and political wing will be completely ideologically dismantled.
5. DEM Party’s Difficult Decision: The biggest impact of Bahçeli’s call will be on the DEM Party. The party has built its strategy on the discourse of “freedom for Öcalan”. However, this discourse is based on the PKK’s laying down its arms, and is built on “peace”.
This call by Devlet Bahçeli puts the DEM Party in a corner. If they accept it, they will lose their ideological basis; if they reject it, they will not be able to maintain the peace discourse.
It is not enough to say that Devlet Bahçeli is asking the DEM Party the question “king or queen?” It is enough even if he draws the king for the US and Israel and takes the queen!
6. PKK’s Ideological Collapse: Bahçeli’s call will also shake the PKK’s organizational structure. Öcalan’s call for the PKK to lay down its arms will remove the basis on which the organization has legitimized itself until now.
If Öcalan makes this call and the PKK refuses, the organization’s APOist ideology will come to an end and it will become clear that its actions serve US/Israeli interests.
7. Impact on the CHP: Bahçeli’s strategic move will also have a profound impact on the CHP. The CHP has long been in a tacit alliance with the DEM Party. However, this alliance may be shaken by Bahçeli’s call.
The CHP will find it difficult to maintain its support for the PKK’s political wing. Bahçeli’s move will also cause a serious rift between the social democratic-Atatürkists and Alevi-leftists within the CHP.
8. If this process is positive, Öcalan’s situation will improve, house arrest may be possible, CHP will be divided, DEM Party will be neutralized and PKK will lose its legitimacy completely.
If it is negative, it seems inevitable that the problem will be solved radically by using force.
Source: https://x.com/mahajansi/status/1848942393250214202
