By Ali Bakeer
🇮🇷🇱🇧 I am shocked that some analysts are still discussing “an #Iranian response”!
#Iran decided long time ago, even before assassinating #Haniyeh, that it can NOT respond “seriously” because #Israel might drag the #US with it and this could constitute a chance to destroy #Tehran, its #nuclear program, & its regime. (Said this a long time ago)
Ironically, being so visible about this decision & giving orders to #Hezbollah not to engage in a war with #Israel and using #Houthis instead, gave the #Israelis a full picture of the situation and paved the way to ultimate #Israeli escalation.
Additionally, while #Hamas op. against #Israel in oct. 7 was a surprise and significantly undermined Israeli deterrence, image, & reputation as a formidable military power & security force, #Iran’s position (as well as #Hezbollah) helped Israel restore much of what it lost in Oct. 7.
The other surprise is that the extent of Israeli human-intel infiltration to #Iran and #Hezbollah is unprecedented and very very very deep. No kind of technological might could have ever achieved the current breakthrough without significant human infiltration.
This means that they have been working on this front for a long time, which supports my previous arguments that one main reason of infiltrating #Hezbollah this deep is its long & deep decade involvement in #Syria (which btw was secured in my opinion through a tacit agreement with #Israel -both wanted #Assad in power- especially at the first years of #Hezbollah involvement in countering the #Syrian uprising by killing/ displacing 10 million #Syrian, and propping up #Assad regime with an #Iranian mandate).
